Consensus first-round pit falls

In staying with the theme of keeping you guys out of trouble, after last week’s post of avoiding the potential early round picks that may out of commission or at least not deliver at a level worthy of such a price, this time we’re going to canvas the consensus for the players that are moving into a new system, new club, coaching change, etc. that could potentially get them to perform at well below par, and these will be picks to avoid.

Ryan Leaf disease (sorry JRuss could still make a comeback) for the potential worst first round pick surprisingly goes to Larry Fitzgerald. No, we’re not piling on after commenting on his potential injury a couple of days ago but almost half of the top fantasy sites have him as the biggest first round bust. I think this has more to do with the change in stripes as Captain Kurt is now buying grocerie store chains in his retirement rather than working in them, and Matt Leinart will be taking over. It appears there is not much confidence in the Heisman winner from Southern Cal., in part because of the questions surrounding weather he will be able to deliver the deep seam ball that provides so many TD for Fitz and YACS. There may be a transition period of a few games so wait on LF until potentially the 3rd or 4th round if you can stand the heat.

Dean Steincooler ailment – Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers coming off an 1k rushing yard year in 2009 the top spot in the Steeler backfield is his to lose and his fumbles may do that for him. Although he only lost 3 fumbles all of last year, he seems to have a bit of the bug during the pre-season which may cost him some carries down near the goal line. In previous years Pittsburgh has simply re-loaded when they had a running back go down but now you have a healthy camp which may cause them to spread the wealth a little bit meaning good amount of carries for the 7th or 8th RB selected but not an early rounder.
Robinson Crusoe syndrome – Stephen Jackson – St. Louis Rams It looks like the Rasta Monster is in for another long and punishing season of getting beat up. A rookie quarterback that will by trying to earn his stripes while being brought along slowly is not a good sign for the feature back who seems to be his teams only accessible weapon. Expect Jackson to see quite a bit of 8-man fronts waiting for him and daring the Rams to make the rookie put it in the air. Jackson has been a good soldier up until this point but his patience will be tested this year, particularly in the early season so lay off him until a little later.
Others to watch (and perhaps see if they can last another round – DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ray Rice. Did we miss anyone? Are we wrong? Let us know here and in any of the quick links including the Fantasy Football Chat room.
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Fantasy Football "Need to Knows"

With exactly 4 weeks until the kickoff of the 2010 season it’s our job to provide you with enough information in time to get your Fantasy Club in order so you can distribute punishment throughout your league to all those in need of a good beat down. The first thing to consider regardless if you’re in a cash, auction, or rotisserie draft league is who to take with those first crucial 4 picks, and particularly in a draft league if you happen to pick last it’s imperative that you pick up your bread and butter offensive players with your consecutive picks as the cupboards may be barren for a cornerstone player come picks 3 and 4, so don’t waste or over pay. With that in mind there are several players that historically are worthy of a cornerstone pick that may will get trapped into taking this year, don’t be one of those guys. First and foremost keep out of the ICU and wait until after prime time (first 4 rounds) to go after these names because you don’t know how they’re going to come of the shoot.
Larry Fitzgerald – WR Cards - MCL strain, could miss only one game or as many as six and may not be 100% so you may want to set on him until a few of the receivers that are the ‘go to’ guy on their teams (even if they’re bad teams) are gone. I would rather pick up a Calvin Johnson on Detroit knowing that he’s the only guy that’s gonna’ catch a ball from Stafford and he had twice as many yards last year as any Lion receiver.
Fred Jackson – RB Buffalo - hand injury requited surgery and may be back for the season opener. This is a tricky one because of the injury to Marshawn Lynch, who may still be back for the season opener. If not then Jackson should get the majority of the snaps but is still not worth a high pick because he’ll be sharing time most of the season and if you’re going to take a running back before the 4th round he should be a versatile and catch some passes as well.
Vernon Davis – Tight End 49’ers – Knee Strain - After a monster season, Davis is among the fantasy elite at the TE position. In '09, he had 78 receptions, 965 yards and 13 touchdowns. What is more encouraging is that when QB Alex Smith became the permanent starter, Davis' numbers were consistently great to close the season. There is the potential that Davis could exceed his numbers from last year, but if he is not 100%, then rest assured Singletary will replace him with somebody that is. He may still be worth an early pick but if you’re in a knowledgeable league he’ll be around until the 5th round.
Ben Tate – RB Houston - Now it appears he is likely to miss the entire season so now that brings up the value of Adrian Foster and Steve Slaton but remember that Slaton won’t be carrying the ball much in the red zone due to his propensity to lay the ball on the carpet. So perhaps look to Adrian Foster to be a real steal in the late rounds as he has moved up on the depth chart ahead of Slaton even though Slaton is ranked higher on many Fantasy boards.

Week 4 injury reports and skinny

This coming week in addition to the bye weeks you really have to pay attention to injuries as several key players on both sides of the ball will miss action. Here is the quick rundown: Well everyone’s former top pick LT has failed to be worthy of a number 1 pick you three years now and now that he’s a #2, he comes out of the box hurt, but he will play this week but not at 100% and going against the Pittsburgh D, even without Troy, still is a risky bet. If you have the Charger D remember that Merriman is going to try and go, and is a game time decision. Going against the Pitt O with a hobbled Willie Parker may not be such a bad start. If you start the Pittsburgh D you may want to sit them one more week because they aren’t the same without TP and the Chargers may score some serious points on them.

Colts Defense : Freeney is going to try and give it a go, so he says, but the coaching staff seems to think he’s not well enough to go. If not, it make a huge difference so if your second team D is close go with them.

Lance Moore/Saints – Is probable but it’s still anyone guess how effective he’ll be, not bad as a 3rd wideout if you don’t have a tight end.

Wes Welker/Patriots – the “Slot Machine” practiced this week and should be able to go this week with the caveat on how effective he’ll be as the Pats still don’t look in sinc with Brady still working is way back into form and no he’ll have to try and get Welker’s timing down. He might play but don’t look for him to get last year’s numbers right away.

Some Running Backs that will need to be replaced:

Portis/Redskins – sore calf and is a game time decision. Even if he plyas don’t look for him to make a huge difference.

Felix Jones/Marion Barber / Dallas – Double trouble if you have either one as although the barbarian will play he’s only about 80% and the Ca’Boys may have problems moving the ball

Frank Gore/49’ers – Out so if he’s still around the SF backups should still be in free agency if you have time to go through the garbage prior to kickoff.

If your in need of a last minute pick up at quarterback, look to Kyle Boller who is going to the this week for the Lambs as Bulger will be 3rd string even if he is activated.

All of the Week 4 player projections by position.

Week 4 injury report