Thursday, August 19, 2010

Consensus first-round pit falls

In staying with the theme of keeping you guys out of trouble, after last week’s post of avoiding the potential early round picks that may out of commission or at least not deliver at a level worthy of such a price, this time we’re going to canvas the consensus for the players that are moving into a new system, new club, coaching change, etc. that could potentially get them to perform at well below par, and these will be picks to avoid.

Ryan Leaf disease (sorry JRuss could still make a comeback) for the potential worst first round pick surprisingly goes to Larry Fitzgerald. No, we’re not piling on after commenting on his potential injury a couple of days ago but almost half of the top fantasy sites have him as the biggest first round bust. I think this has more to do with the change in stripes as Captain Kurt is now buying grocerie store chains in his retirement rather than working in them, and Matt Leinart will be taking over. It appears there is not much confidence in the Heisman winner from Southern Cal., in part because of the questions surrounding weather he will be able to deliver the deep seam ball that provides so many TD for Fitz and YACS. There may be a transition period of a few games so wait on LF until potentially the 3rd or 4th round if you can stand the heat.

Dean Steincooler ailment – Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers coming off an 1k rushing yard year in 2009 the top spot in the Steeler backfield is his to lose and his fumbles may do that for him. Although he only lost 3 fumbles all of last year, he seems to have a bit of the bug during the pre-season which may cost him some carries down near the goal line. In previous years Pittsburgh has simply re-loaded when they had a running back go down but now you have a healthy camp which may cause them to spread the wealth a little bit meaning good amount of carries for the 7th or 8th RB selected but not an early rounder.
Robinson Crusoe syndrome – Stephen Jackson – St. Louis Rams It looks like the Rasta Monster is in for another long and punishing season of getting beat up. A rookie quarterback that will by trying to earn his stripes while being brought along slowly is not a good sign for the feature back who seems to be his teams only accessible weapon. Expect Jackson to see quite a bit of 8-man fronts waiting for him and daring the Rams to make the rookie put it in the air. Jackson has been a good soldier up until this point but his patience will be tested this year, particularly in the early season so lay off him until a little later.
Others to watch (and perhaps see if they can last another round – DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ray Rice. Did we miss anyone? Are we wrong? Let us know here and in any of the quick links including the Fantasy Football Chat room.
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