Saturday, December 25, 2010

Positions to consider for all Super Bowl participants

Running Backs –
Avoid – Ray Rice/Ravens – Despite the fact that RR has put up some huge Fantasy numbers over the last two weeks this week doesn’t match up well for him as the Browns are a tough out at home (ask New England) and will be looking to salvage something of their season with wins to close out the year while building some mo’ for next year.
Wild Cards - Arian Foster/Houston – who knows how healthy this guy really is? If he can go, and go at even 75% he should tear up a Bronco defense that is 23rd in the league against the rush and has nothing to play for. Look for him to get 20-plus carries and get into the zone at least twice which means he is a solid RB1 or 2 this weekend.
Darren McFadden /Raiders the problem isn’t injuries here as much as it the fact that he has been sharing time and he’s not the guy that’s going to get the rock inside the 5-yard line so he may get the yards for you but the points may not measure up.
Our Pick – Steven Jackson/Rams – the game of the year in the NFC Weak and they’re going to need Jackson to carry the load. The Niners can give up some big Fantasy points to Running Backs so if you have em’ start em’. I know he only had 81 yards and one td the last time the two teams met but he’s going to get 30 carries on Sunday and at 4.0 yards per crack that means 20 points in the bank plus any TD as icing.

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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Championship/Superbowl week for leagues - Homework begins today

Firstly, if you are viewing this message with any interest at all other than anger about who is playing this week other than you, then you object of the contempt and congratulations on making the either the semi-finals or Super Bowl. I know you all have been living on the waiver wire for the last couple of days looking to make that one last acquisition that will put you over the top so before we get into some positions make sure you go through the checklist prior to setting your lineups and there are a couple of additions this week:

- Weather – most of east will be in the 20’s so chose accordingly. (watch out for Brady as in New England it will be cold but more over windy as well)

- Teams that are fighting for a playoff spot vs. those with nothing to play for – two things to consider here. They are going the ride the horse that’s getting things done (ie; if you’re considering a back in ‘shared time’ backfield like Tampa Bay, if Blount gets off to a start similar to last week Cadillac Williams may not get as many touches) Also, teams like the Broncos, Redskins, and Bills will be testing talent over the next two weeks

- Injuries – obviously this is first on your list since there are no ‘bye weeks’ left, and if Rogers is cleared to play that changes the dynamic of that game. Arian Foster will also play

- Wavier-wire availability – remember this is “FANTASY” football so there are no friends here, if there is an opportunity to pick up a player off waivers that has a great matchup and can pick you up an extra 7-10 points that can mean the difference between a championship and obscurity, so send him to the practice squad, nothing personal.

Now, let’s do what we can in regards to personnel, but it would behoove us to wait for the injury reports before setting the final lineups. During championship week it’s often not the cornerstones that win or lose the game for you because Peyton, Vick, and Brady are usually going to come through with their 30 points but if you’ve it this far you have first-rounder that’s at the helm and most likely, so does your opponent so they often cancel each other out and what makes the difference are the 2nd, 3rd, and flex spots so let’s look at some possibilities.
Michael Bush has had 40 carries over the last 3 weeks and the Raiders are going up against a bad run defense in the Colts, but he’ll be splitting time with a hot back in Run DMC so don’t look for him to get over 100 Yards for the game but he’ll get the rock inside the 10 so he may get you key points from an RB2 position.
Ben Jarvis-Green-Ellis – The law firm is the quintessential RB2 because he will never get you the 10points for going over the century mark but will be the go to guy inside the 5 to get the ball in the end zone, and in a game with bad, windy, weather for team that throws the ball as much as the Patriots do, the possibility of a PI call that puts them on the 1 or close are good odds for a free 6 points.
LeGarrett Blount – Another back that splits time, but inside the 10 he is going to be the call for the Bucs as they host a Seattle team that is 21st against the run and doesn’t travel well to begin with, going 2-5 on the road.
Let’s start with that and we’ll get to the individual positions and picks next. In the meantime chat live with other Fantasy Football Players in the Fantasy Football Chat Room.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Second season begins for Fantasy players so make your moves count

Welcome to the next level! If you are taking the time to pay attention to a Fantasy Football Blog that means that you are one of the 25% of Fantasy Football players around the country who have managed to advance to playoffs in your leagues, either squeaking in as the last seed or coming in as the top seed. In either case it’s a new season and you can throw the records out so those of your that were granted a reprieve you should feel lucky, so take advantage of it. If you’re a top two seed (hopefully you play in a league that rewards the top two with 1st round byes) then make sure you don’t lose a season’s worth of work by not preparing properly, and I hope we can help.
Complete Fantasy Stats for Week 13 and projections for Week 14 here.
Quarterbacks –
For you guys who managed to get crafty and pick up some of the second stringers who stepped in and may have saved you over the last couple of weeks but this is the playoffs and you’re not going to get away with it again.
Avoid - Matt Cassel is too dangerous to take a chance on this week even if he does play, how healthy could he be, and even if he does play how well would he play in pain against the top passing D in the NFL?
Fool’s Gold - John Kitna has had the highest percentage increase in ownership among quarterbacks this week as you can sense the desperation and need for change with some Fantasy owners. However this may not be your move. The Eagle’s D may be ranked 17th against the pass but they can bring the heat and will force JK to put it up quicker than he’s used to. Moreover the loss of Dez Bryant will make a huge difference when a Cowboys need a sure 3rd down conversion to keep the drive alive, so they may be short of weapons going into such a big game.
Mamma’s Boys – Jay Cutler Mother nature will not be kind to both Jay Cutler or Tom Brady this weekend as the weather calls for a temperature in the 20’s with wind. Although both Q’s play in cities where the elements are often not conducive to an aerial attack and they still seem to do well, if you have an option to substitute you may want to consider it, particularly in Cutler’s case as his offense does not center around a short passing game.
Sleeper Pick - David Garrard – The Jags have won 4 of 5 and have scores over 24 points in all but one of their last six games so their offense has not been an issue and I love teams that have good run support so the Q’s can pick their spots to throw and MJD should be able to help the Jags control the time of possession. Now it’s not like the Raiders are terrible against the pass (9th and only 206 ypg) but they have allowed 22 TDs through the air this year and 1 rushing TD to a quarterback. The Jags have a lot to play for so look for them to still be going up top even with a lead in 4th.
Next up Running Backs………………………………..

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Hot tips, sneaky tips, and last minute tactics going into Playoffs

At this time of the Fantasy Season it’s all about getting into the playoffs, after that it really doesn’t matter where you’re seeded (unless you get a bye), as there are a plethora of new options and strategies, so do what you gotta’ do in and that could depend on this week so do your homework. As always matchps are the first thing to look at if you have some option in your starting lineup, and if you’re a club fighting for a playoff spot then you probably do, so put the egos aside and look at how might have (A) big game for you rather than the player who has the name or been good in the past. With that in mind here are some of the matchups we like:


Michael Vick – I almost feel stupid putting him in because any MVP candidate is most of the time an automatic start but for those of you that use software programs to determine starters and skip the basics, you could be misled because for the season Vick is 5th among active QB’s in fantasy points for the season and some owners actually still have him on the bench because of last week’s matchup with the Bears, but he is going up against a defense that is 31st in the league against the pass, so look for Vick to put up some good points with his arm this week, give him the start.

Watch out for – Matt Ryan – He may be suffering from ‘Dome’s Disease’ as his numbers are much different on the road than they are in the confines of the dome.

Sleeper – Matt Cassel – going up against the Broncos he’ll put the ball in the air quite a bit, particularly with the screen pass, and the Broncos (20th pass 30th run) are susceptible to both so look for him to have a big day.

Wide Receivers

Stephen Johnson – Enough with the dropped pass drama already. He’ll be looking to redeem himself in a big way and the Vikings (14th against the pass) won’t be easy pickins’ but he simply gets so many opportunities to make plays because he is Kirkpatrick’s boy and the Bills put the ball up much more than the average and will be trying to make things happen as they have nothing to lose.

Watch out for – Larry Fitzgerald – I don’t like Fitz this week just because of the way Derek Anderson is throwing the ball right now, and how bad the offense is playing. True the Rams will give up some real estate but they’re playing much better and I don’t like the Cards on a short week. You probably have better options.

Sleeper – Randy Moss – If Collins plays this could be the make it play of the season for you. A veteran quarterback will know exactly how use Randy and make the most of his big play capabilities. If you need to break out of your average and do something big this may be the play.
Next up Running Backs……………………………………..

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Time to separate the Theo Epsteins from the Elgin Baylors

It’s crunch time in most fantasy leagues because you’ve either cemented your position in the playoffs and need to gear for the week 14-17 matchups as your playoff games or you’re a bubble team that needs to lock down a couple of quality wins or steal a couple to get in. The good news/bad news scenario is then the slate is whipped clean and you’ve got a real short season and a good matchup can make the difference between months of hazing and the spoils of victory including most of the bragging rights and smac talk. It’s time to break out the chess board, think 3 moves ahead, and be more Theo Epstein of the Red Sox than Elgin Baylor of the Clippers. Now if you need to get in or hold the three most important things are matchups, matchups, matchups so keep your eye on that combination of who might be available due to playing on a team with a poor record of perhaps has not had an opportunity to play. Today’s focus will be the quarterback position and three immediately fit this mold.
Matt Cassel (Chiefs) this could be the best matchups quarterback over the next two weeks if he’s available, and may be because of the stats year that he’s had thus far, and although he’s 14th in most leagues that puts him right on the fringe between fantasy unemployment and backup. The Chiefs perhaps have the best schedule over the next two weeks for quarterbacks as they host the Cards (27th in the league vs. the pass) this week, then travel to Seattle to take on the SeaChickens (28th), so if you can get him, he’s the top pick off the wires and if you’ve had him on the bench dust him off and get him in there as he may save your season.
Troy Smith (49’ers) ok, I know it’s a wild card but if you’re searching the waiver wire then this isn’t just a sub/start question and your cupboards empty so you’re going to have to take some risk and he can get pulled if he has a couple of bad quarters but 356 last week with one td is not back for a week 11 pickup, but you may have to put him on ice for a week as a matchup with the Bucs (8th in the league vs. the pass) doesn’t look promising even though they are at home but then you have Arizona next week (27th) which is where you can cash your dividend check. Matt Cassel
You’ll have to drive to the “Leisure Village retirement home” for this pickup but it may be worth your while as there is not much chance anyone picked up John Kitna going up against the Giants unless they were really trying to think outside the box, so he should be available. The crafty vet could do well his third game in the lineup as they take on the Lions (17th) and the Pats (30th) after that it’s back to the recliner but he might get you over the hump.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Early Fantasy Week starts tomorrow – get your changes in

Week 10 has a couple of curve balls as the Thursday Night games start and some key players are on bye week. Get your starting lineup together by checking weather, stats, and injuries on the Fantasy Football Page. Also chat live with other players on who they’re starting and sitting this week, at the Ultimate Sports Forum.
As many leagues do not re-draft going into the playoffs these become the money weeks as many a season is lost when the weeks get short and the weather gets bad. To add to the confusion for many the bye week will take some key players out of the mix as the top fantasy QB this year Phillip Rivers will not be available, nor will Drew Breese, or Aaron Rogers, or the players they throw to so the rule of them that “you’re only as good as your bench” will certainly come into play this week, so let’s get you started with some news and notes:
Look for Arian Foster to have a huge day against the Jags 22nd ranked defense vs. the run. Of course you got him, you’ll start him and no one has the Jags D anyway so this may not be breaking news but if you have to choose between and RB1 and RB2 then move him up to the top spot. Conversely, look out if you’re expecting Chris Johnson to get you 30+ points this weekend as he takes on a Dolphins defense that is 13th against the run and even better at home.
If Joseph Addai is available on waivers try to pick him up as, although he is not scheduled to return to action this week, he is slated to return next week against the Pats who gave up 184 yards and 30+ fantasy points to Peyton Hillis last week.
On Sunday Night when you’re down 20 points with only 1 YTP don’t worry if you’ve got Michael Vick scheduled to start as he should have a huge game going up against the Skins who are the worst in the NFL against the pass and 18th against the run. He should have them coming and going and picking his spots well. He’ll make up that deficit for you or hold your lead this week so give him the start.
Obviously Matthew Stafford will not be available for this week due to injury but now it’s looking like his season is over so it’s time to give him the pink slip if you’re not in a dynasty league that lets you hold over.
Sleeper Pick – Randy Moss practiced and will get some good reps as the Titans take on Miami. Moss historically has played well against the fish and you only need to reference his Patriot debut game a reference on how he tends to perform when he starts with a new team.
Back with the weather reports later in the week………………………………

Friday, October 29, 2010

Sit em' or Start em' week 8

QuarterBacks – Peyton Manning (vs. Houston Defense)
I normally don’t jump on the favorite’s train when it comes to trying to find sleeper picks because by definition if every league has them starting that there won’t be much opportunity to make a crafty pickup or start, and this guy probably was the first pick in most leagues but it’s hard to believe that Peyton Manning hasn’t broke 20 points since week 4, albeit one of those weeks was a bye week, but the two weeks preceeding only would have garnished you 18 and 7 respectively. However I do look for him to have a huge day this weekend and perhaps his best passing total for the season thus far. Houston will put pressure on him and maybe even get to him a couple of times but they will also get beat deep and they give up huge passing plays so if you were thinking of being crafty by NOT starting Peyton a playing the matchups, don’t.
Running Backs – Frank Gore (vs. Denver)
The only thing that scares me about this move is how bad Denver looked last week and that they would have to be contemplating making major moves if not stepping up the defense. However I’m also thinking that if RunDMC can drop 43 points on them then Gore who is the anchor of the running game that needs to get going should be able to get at least half of that. Now I realize he has done much lately (15, 14, 9 last 3 weeks) but much like the guy listed above, look for FG to have a breakout week and get over 20 points for you as your second back. Start him.
Wide Receivers Miles Austin (vs. JVille)
Ok, this is a pure matchup play, the 32nd ranked passing defense against a team that must win and pass to do it as you know the Jags will be going 8 in the box of force old man Kitna to put it in the air and that’s what he’ll do but safely. A lot of short passes and then the YACs will take over and there should be plenty for the Austin who has shown up all season and in a must win will do the same.
View the complete stat breakdown each week by player here.
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Saturday, October 23, 2010

Week 7 could be the day of the Running Back

This Sunday could be on of the best days if your fantasy team is heavily relying on the Running Backs to carry the scoring load even if you weren’t lucky enough to get a top five pick on draft day. Several of the big point running backs have favorable matchups and should score well so if you have the option of going two or three RBs at the cost of a TE or WR you may want to make that switch this week. Here are the top 8 back and their week 7 defensive matchups.

1. R. Rice (BAL) vs BUF
2. C. Johnson (TEN) vs PHI
3. A. Peterson (MIN) @GB
4. S. Jackson (StL) @TB
5. R. Torain (WAS) @CHI
6. F. Gore (SF) @CAR
7. R. Mendenhall (PIT) @MIA
8. M. Jones-drew (JAC) @KC

The Quarterback position is not as easy to call if you’re not holding a top 3 pick but many recipients of the coveted first pick are scrambling to find a sub for Perfect Peyton who is on a bye week. For those of you who might be pillaging through the garbage that is the free-agent market or looking to dust off a third-stringer, look at Matt Cassel going against the Jags defense on short rest. Also look to Kyle Orton to bounce back and have a good day against the Raiders.

1. D. Brees (NO) vs CLE
2. M. Cassel (KC) vs JAC (Smacchat Sleeper of the Week)
3. D. Mcnabb (WAS) @CHI
4. K. Orton (DEN) vs OAK
5. E. Manning (NYG) @DAL
6. A. Rodgers (GB) vs MIN
7. T. Brady (NE) @SD
8. P. Rivers (SD) vs NE
9. T. Romo (DAL) vs NYG

As for the wide outs if you were lucky enough to hold the waiver wire rotation first dibs then you picked up Deion Branch for nothing as no one wanted him. Now he goes back to San Diego where he has always had big games and now that he’s got a better grasp on the playbook he could take down 20+ points. Here are the other choices for top receiver of the afternoon.
1. H. Nicks (NYG) @DAL
2. B. Lloyd (DEN) vs OAK
3. R. White (ATL) vs CIN
4. A. Boldin (BAL) vs BUF
5. R. Moss (MIN) @GB
6. J. Maclin (PHI) @TEN
7. M. Austin (DAL) vs NYG
8. M. Wallace (PIT) @MIA
9. G. Jennings (GB) vs MIN
10. S. Moss (WAS) @CHI
11. D. Bowe (KC) vs JAC
12. M. Crabtree (SF) @CAR
13. T. Owens (CIN) @ATL
14. D. Branch (NE) @SD (smacchat sleeper pick)

Friday, October 15, 2010

Fantasy Football week six, time to wach the weather and injury reports

As we get into week six there seem to be certainties that you can count on every year. The weather beginning to become a major factor as the rain and cold begin to roll in, and the injuries become more prevalent. So, as move towards the mid-way point in the season we’ll consider both of those factors as we look toward putting the best lineup. With that said, here’s who we think should have big point days this weekend.
Peyton Manning – Colts (vs. Redskins) – Ok any time you get a chance to start Peyton it’s kind of an easy call, but so far this year he’s only been the top point quarterback once this year (week 1) including a dismal showing last week, only going for 244 with a pick and no TD’s. However, going up against the 30th ranked pass defense in the league look for PM to break out of his short slump and go for 25 points plus in this one.
Arian Foster – Houston (vs. Chiefs) Look for Foster to make up for his horrible 25-yard 0 touchdown performance against the Giants with a strong 100-plus yard, 2 td performance against the Chiefs this weekend. I realize those are bold numbers but at home the Texans are a totally different club and I’s still not sold on the Chiefs defense.
Hakeem Nicks – Giants (vs. Lions) 26th against the run 24th against the Pass gives you a good place to start, and he’s quickly becoming a top point man every week with 130, 110, and 75 (3tds) under his belt already this season, Nicks should go for big points against the Lion’s defense. Start him in your 2’s or 3’s.
Sleeper Pick of the week – Michael Bush (vs. Niners) showing huge potential as his carries increase and he should get plenty this weekend as the Raiders are dealing with the afore mentioned injury concerns with Gradkowski still not participating in practice so we may see Jason Campbell. In either case put Bush in as your 2 or 3 and you might get RB1 points.
Get him to the airport - Jerricho Cotchery - WR (Jets) Although he had his season high five catches last week against Minnesota don’t look for that to be a continuing trend with Santana Moss returning to the lineup. If you have JC in your top three put him on waivers now, do a little work, and find a good matchup where you might steal a td.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Fantasy Football starting questions week 5

If your Fantasy League was anything like most last week you probably had some managers pulling their hair out and wonder why they had more bench points than starter points, and it’s because the NFL took a dip in the hot tub time machine and took us back five years as the top performers more resembled the leaderboard from eight years ago. The top passer was a first-year rookie out of East Carolina named David Garrard (25 points in most leagues), the 2nd best Running Back was a second year player out of little known TCU named LaDanian Tomlinson, and the top Wide Receiver was a brass, tall 6-3, lengthy five year veteran out of Tennessee Chattanooga, named Terrell Owens, the top tight end and scorer overall was a rookie Tight End out of another small school, Kent State, a former basketball player and 10th round pick in most fantasy drafts Antonio Gates. Lastly, just for good measure the top kicker is the Godfather with 11 years experience, Jason Hanson. And that’s how the article would have read eight years ago! This weekend seems even more unbelievable as those rookies are seasoned vets who probably had the best stat games that they will have all year, but it does make you really ponder if it was really an aberration of you go sifting through the discards for some cheap crafty vets that can put you over the top this weekend? Well don’t do dropping Adrian Peterson just yet, and keep your eye on who might make a difference this weekend.
Running Back - MJD – Picked up his first 100-yard rushing game (and TD) last weekend against the Colts and really his first game that justified a number 3 pick in most leagues. Look for him to keep the momentum going against the winless Buffalo Bills and pick up over 100 again.
Quarterback – Peyton Manning – The Colts need a win to avoid going under .500 for the first time in recent memory and really make their quest to return to the Super Bowl a daunting task, so Peyton will be looking have a big day and despite being the lone unbeaten team in the NFL the Chiefs are dogs.
WR – Reggie Wayne – A great opportunity to double dip if Peyton can find his best target. Buffalo has the 12th ranked defense against the pass and 32nd against the run so the Colts should be moving the ball all day.
Player to possibly let take a breather this weekend
TE – Antonio Gates – This is a tempting guy to start not only because of the 26+ points he put up last week but because of the week that he had last week but because he is #1 YTD for tight ends. My concern is the that the Raiders, despite their record, do have the #3 rated defense against the pass in the NFL and always play the Chargers tough in this rivalry game. If you have another TE that can get you double digits you may want to lean in that direction.
View all of the stats/totals from last week and this week’s projections on the main site, and chat live with other fantasy players in the fantasy football chat room. Next up, ones to stay away from this weekend.
View the complete stat breakdown each week by player here.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

To start or not to start, that is the question

Michael Vick – Redskins at Philly – The Fantasy MVP in many leagues last week (3 tds 291 and 30)with an average of 32 points was undoubtedly the highest producing quarterback out gunning Peyton(25), Phillip(24), and Tom (22) but can he do it again particularly with the other team scheming for him? We think so. The Redskins give up 265 per through the air and they having played the best names in league. Where the Skins could provide a little trouble is on the ground where they offer up less than 100 per, but Vick has not been doing it with his legs as much as of late. He should still be your starter.
Tom Brady – Pats at Dolphins – this is a tough call. Brady has been consistently producing through three games this season and may be called upon to keep the Pats in this one if the Dolphins plug up the New England running game which is suspect at best. Because of the ‘stat padder’ game against the Bills the Pats average 123 yards per on the ground but it’s fool’s gold. Conversely, if the Fish go 8 in the box to stop the Pats spread offense Brady could go for 300, also if Miami gets out to a big lead NE may have to throw to get in the game, keep in mind the Dolphins only give up 17 points per game. If you are blessed to have another major on your club then perhaps sit Tom down, but I want to know what league you’re in that you can get two quarterbacks of that caliber and have anything left!
One to watch – Matt Ryan Atlanta vs. San Francisco – I know he hasn’t really broken out yet but this could be a good week to count on 30+ points from Ryan as he’ll be hosting the ‘Niners who give up 217 in the air and more than that on turf. San Francisco does have a strong rush D so if the Birds take with the defense gives them there should be some good opportunities for the Falcons and particularly Ryan if they get down inside the 10 as they will probably try to hit pay dirt through the air as the path of least resistance. I look for 20+ points from Ryan this weekend.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Week 3 Moves and Matchups

Going into week 3 of the NFL season there are a lot teams who find themselves in either “must win” situations even though we’re only two games into the season, and that’s not just the 0-2 teams as many of the 1-1 teams realize they can’t fall too far behind the leaders if they want the chance to host a playoff game. All of this equates to the “go to guys” needing to show up big. So with that in mind try to find some matchups where a team will leave no doubt about the outcome of the game and the players that will benefit from it.
Adrian Peterson – matched up against Minnesota at home should be a good combination for a big day, and Favre with a dearth of quality receivers they could suddenly become a one-dimensional team and that bodes well for AP holders.
Darren McFadden – Going up against an Arizona defense that is ranked 31st against the run and is struggling to keep teams out of the end zone (17 v Rams, 41 v Falcons) even the Raiders should be able to get into the end zone at least twice and with a shaky QB situation look for Oakland to keep the ball on the ground.
Tom Brady – The Pats offense looked like the unbeaten team of 07’ for the first two possessions of last week’s game but then couldn’t do anything else for the rest of the afternoon. Word out of New England is that they are going to try to pump up the volume (in regards to yards, points, and speed) and that should set up well for a home game against the Bills in which the Pats realize if they lose they could find themselves 2 full games back of the Fish in the AFC East.
Malcom Floyd – The Chrargers take a trip to Seattle to face the Sea Hawks, potentially bad weather, and their 26th ranked pass defense. On the non-statistical side all of the talk about how much the Chargers miss Vincent Jackson has got to be motivational for Floyd to step up as the new top guy. Normally a number 2 or 3 receiver on most fantasy teams, move him up this week and you won’t be sorry.
Next up tomorrow, players who might not get their average tomorrow.
Who do you think might be due for a breakout weekend? Let us know here and in the Fantasy Football chat room on the main site.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Fantasy Spotlight – Players due for a week 2 comeback and those facing a tough week

Adrian Peterson – True the Vikings going up against a dolphin defense that is difficult to run against but on the carpet in Minnesota I like AP to get his hundred plus as well as get a couple of sores from inside the 10-yard line for a 20+ point game.

Chris Johnson – Titans – (rough week) the Steelers know they’re defense is going to have to carry the day as they have no offense to speak of. They typically only allow less than a hundred and only gave up 58 last week in an overtime game. Rest assured they will be stacking the box and forcing Vince to beat them with his arm.

Peyton Manning – Colts – (good week) the Giants pass d normally will give you 200 per game and I think they were well on their way before Moore got hurt, and Clausen was simply not ready for prime time. This week though they will get a full dose of Peyton at home, on turf, and in need of a win. Look for Peyton to get over 250 and give you at least 23 points

Tom Brady – Patriots – (tough week) – Firstly, every time you go up against the Jets at home it’s going you must shave off 20% from the standard deviation, but there are so many qualitative factors in this game such as the rivalry, Revis getting another game under his belt, the trash talk, the Jets coming off a home loss and staring 0-2 in the face, etc. All of these things add up to the Jets stepping up on D, and I still don’t think they will win of the field but don’t expect the Pats to put up 30 plus like they did on the Bengals.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Consensus first-round pit falls

In staying with the theme of keeping you guys out of trouble, after last week’s post of avoiding the potential early round picks that may out of commission or at least not deliver at a level worthy of such a price, this time we’re going to canvas the consensus for the players that are moving into a new system, new club, coaching change, etc. that could potentially get them to perform at well below par, and these will be picks to avoid.

Ryan Leaf disease (sorry JRuss could still make a comeback) for the potential worst first round pick surprisingly goes to Larry Fitzgerald. No, we’re not piling on after commenting on his potential injury a couple of days ago but almost half of the top fantasy sites have him as the biggest first round bust. I think this has more to do with the change in stripes as Captain Kurt is now buying grocerie store chains in his retirement rather than working in them, and Matt Leinart will be taking over. It appears there is not much confidence in the Heisman winner from Southern Cal., in part because of the questions surrounding weather he will be able to deliver the deep seam ball that provides so many TD for Fitz and YACS. There may be a transition period of a few games so wait on LF until potentially the 3rd or 4th round if you can stand the heat.

Dean Steincooler ailment – Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers coming off an 1k rushing yard year in 2009 the top spot in the Steeler backfield is his to lose and his fumbles may do that for him. Although he only lost 3 fumbles all of last year, he seems to have a bit of the bug during the pre-season which may cost him some carries down near the goal line. In previous years Pittsburgh has simply re-loaded when they had a running back go down but now you have a healthy camp which may cause them to spread the wealth a little bit meaning good amount of carries for the 7th or 8th RB selected but not an early rounder.
Robinson Crusoe syndrome – Stephen Jackson – St. Louis Rams It looks like the Rasta Monster is in for another long and punishing season of getting beat up. A rookie quarterback that will by trying to earn his stripes while being brought along slowly is not a good sign for the feature back who seems to be his teams only accessible weapon. Expect Jackson to see quite a bit of 8-man fronts waiting for him and daring the Rams to make the rookie put it in the air. Jackson has been a good soldier up until this point but his patience will be tested this year, particularly in the early season so lay off him until a little later.
Others to watch (and perhaps see if they can last another round – DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ray Rice. Did we miss anyone? Are we wrong? Let us know here and in any of the quick links including the Fantasy Football Chat room.
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Monday, August 16, 2010

Fantasy Football "Need to Knows"

With exactly 4 weeks until the kickoff of the 2010 season it’s our job to provide you with enough information in time to get your Fantasy Club in order so you can distribute punishment throughout your league to all those in need of a good beat down. The first thing to consider regardless if you’re in a cash, auction, or rotisserie draft league is who to take with those first crucial 4 picks, and particularly in a draft league if you happen to pick last it’s imperative that you pick up your bread and butter offensive players with your consecutive picks as the cupboards may be barren for a cornerstone player come picks 3 and 4, so don’t waste or over pay. With that in mind there are several players that historically are worthy of a cornerstone pick that may will get trapped into taking this year, don’t be one of those guys. First and foremost keep out of the ICU and wait until after prime time (first 4 rounds) to go after these names because you don’t know how they’re going to come of the shoot.
Larry Fitzgerald – WR Cards - MCL strain, could miss only one game or as many as six and may not be 100% so you may want to set on him until a few of the receivers that are the ‘go to’ guy on their teams (even if they’re bad teams) are gone. I would rather pick up a Calvin Johnson on Detroit knowing that he’s the only guy that’s gonna’ catch a ball from Stafford and he had twice as many yards last year as any Lion receiver.
Fred Jackson – RB Buffalo - hand injury requited surgery and may be back for the season opener. This is a tricky one because of the injury to Marshawn Lynch, who may still be back for the season opener. If not then Jackson should get the majority of the snaps but is still not worth a high pick because he’ll be sharing time most of the season and if you’re going to take a running back before the 4th round he should be a versatile and catch some passes as well.
Vernon Davis – Tight End 49’ers – Knee Strain - After a monster season, Davis is among the fantasy elite at the TE position. In '09, he had 78 receptions, 965 yards and 13 touchdowns. What is more encouraging is that when QB Alex Smith became the permanent starter, Davis' numbers were consistently great to close the season. There is the potential that Davis could exceed his numbers from last year, but if he is not 100%, then rest assured Singletary will replace him with somebody that is. He may still be worth an early pick but if you’re in a knowledgeable league he’ll be around until the 5th round.
Ben Tate – RB Houston - Now it appears he is likely to miss the entire season so now that brings up the value of Adrian Foster and Steve Slaton but remember that Slaton won’t be carrying the ball much in the red zone due to his propensity to lay the ball on the carpet. So perhaps look to Adrian Foster to be a real steal in the late rounds as he has moved up on the depth chart ahead of Slaton even though Slaton is ranked higher on many Fantasy boards.

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